JBJ Weather

To our North this weekend.

QUICK-HITTING WINTER STORM TO IMPACT AREA... Precipitation should begin to overspread the area from west to east from 8 to 9 am with the heaviest occurring from late morning to early afternoon. Heaviest snowfall amounts will occur in the Lehigh Valley with totals generally ranging from 3-5 inches. Further south and east closer to the I-95 corridor, totals should range from 1-3 inches. Some light rain is likely for the I-95 corridor from early to mid afternoon.

MAJOR WINTER STORM BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.... In the wake of the Monday night-Tuesday morning storm system that moved through the area quickly, cooler conditions are settling into the region with lows dropping into the upper teens Tuesday night into early Wednesday. A significant snow pack remains for areas north and west of Philadelphia despite the brief warm-up associated with rainy conditions. Re-freezing will occur with the... return of cold temps. The forecast for the coming major winter storm has been a rollercoaster. Less than a week ago, the GFS was indicating a warm rainstorm, but the European model hinted at a much colder, further east solution with wintry precipitation involved for the Mid-Atlantic on northward. Since then, the trend for all modeling has been to that solution and even colder such that I-95 from Philadelphia to New York City will remain all frozen precip and areas north and west may stay all snow. A front end thump of snow will overspread the region from southwest to northeast on early Thursday morning with heavy rates occurring mid morning to mid afternoon. A lull in the precipitation will likely allow some upper level warm air to enter the I-95 region, causing a changeover to sleet during the overnight hours into Friday morning. Surface temperatures will remain below freezing during this time so accumulation will continue. Further northwest into the Lehigh Valley, all snow should continue, albeit lighter than earlier in the day. Total snowfall in the I-95 corridor from Philly to NYC will likely be in the 6-10 range, with higher amounts closer to NYC. Areas north and west will see greater amounts in excess of a foot in some locations with a widespread 8-12 inches. These areas include the Lehigh Valley to NW Jersey. Stay tuned for future updates.

Icy conditions incoming! Happy Sunday evening everyone. We are going to be watching two system that will affect the region this week. The first is expected to move in later tomorrow evening. This system is going to be a big headache as far as ice goes. We could see some spotty frozen precipitation at anytime of Monday but the bulk of it will fall primarily later in the evening before it moves out early Tuesday morning. For the Lehigh Valley we could see a decent amount of... ice with this system. Freezing rain will be expected for the bulk of it in the Lehigh Valley. As of right now I think that this region specifically could see around 0.3 to 0.4 of ice. The main reason I think this area sees more ice is because temperatures will hold on to freezing longer and that’s if they even get above freezing. A few things to note from the images below. The first is the 3km NAM which shows the ice moving in late tomorrow evening. The second and third are of the NAM. Notice how the NAM here changes over to plain rain, but also notice how the temperatures are just barley above freezing. The problem here is that the model cannot pick up the large amounts of snow still on the ground. This will help cause temperatures to remain cooler on the surface. Models aren’t able to pick this up. So when the model is showing temperatures of 33 they are most likely only going to be somewhere around 30. We also have to take into account what we call CAD or cold air damming. This comes into play when locations are in valleys, just like the Lehigh Valley. The cold air gets trapped in to the valleys and they remain colder for longer periods. Both of these reasons are why I don’t think the Lehigh Valley switches over to plain rain. As for the Philly region, you will see the precipitation fall as freezing rain to start but temperatures will warm enough for you to change over to plain rain. Before the Philly region switches over they can be looking at around 0.1 of ice. Travel will definitely still be pretty icy in the morning on Tuesday for the Lehigh Valley. It is looking like temperatures will finally warm enough in the afternoon to melt some of the ice, but the morning still isn’t looking good. Please be safe if you are out driving. We are also going to see another system move in early Thursday morning. This one does have the potential to start as a decent thump of front end snow before we see a changeover to sleet/freezing rain. We will have more updates as we get closer to this system.

Good Morning/Afternoon everyone. Another cold day on tap for the Lehigh Valley and Philadelphia area. Current analysis: A weak low pressure will be off the Mid-Atlantic coast today through Sunday Morning. This maybe accompanied by a period of sleet and freezing rain. For that the national weather service has issued a winter weather advisory for Southern portions of the Lehigh Valley down into the Philadelphia area covered in blue on image shown. Expect temperatures to be in t...he mid to upper 20s across the entire area. Precipitation amounts will be on the order of .01-.10 inches. While it may not sound like much most of this will fall in the form of freezing rain. Remember it does not take much freezing rain to make the ground slippery especially after very cold temperatures during the past few days. Be careful driving if you run into any freezing rain this evening. See more